Last season, Brady finished 12th overall in fantasy points for quarterbacks. He finished 10 total points behind Aaron Rodgers for 10th and 23 total points behind Patrick Mahomes, who finished 6th overall.
You know who finished 4th last year?
Jameis Winston. Jameis Winston finished 4th. Jameis Winston finished one point behind Russell Wilson for 3rd overall. The same Jameis Winston who led the league with 30 interceptions last year (Next closest was Baker Mayfield with 21).
Although he had 30 interceptions, he also added 33 touchdowns and over 5,000 yards last year, largely due to his surrounding cast:
Chris Godwin - 86 receptions for 1,333 yards (14 games)
Mike Evans - 67 receptions for 1,157 yards (13 games)
Breshad Perriman - 36 receptions for 645 yards (14 games)
Brate & Howard - combined 70 receptions for 870 yards
Godwin and Evans were arguably the best WR combo last season. There aren't a lot of teams that can match this combination at receiver. On top of it, throw in two athletic tight ends and a very talented #3 WR with Perriman... well I'd hope you'd have a little success at QB.
Tom Brady last season - 24 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, and over 4,000 yards passing, with this surrounding cast:
Julian Edelman - 100 receptions, 1,117 yards (all 16 games)
James White - 72 receptions, 645 yards (15 games)
Phillip Dorsett - 29 receptions, 397 yards (14 games)
Besides Edelman and *insert Patriot running back here*, Brady didn't have a lot of options. Also, the Patriots statistically had one of the greatest fantasy Defenses of all time last season. So the Patriots offense was rarely in any shootouts that would cause Brady to sling the ball downfield... and he still finished as a QB1 in 2019.
This is the same QB who finished 11th in 2018 and 2nd in 2017. That's right, 2nd overall behind Russell Wilson. 40 year old Tom Brady finished as the 2nd best QB in 2017, which is also the last time that Brady had two 1,000 yard receivers on his team (Gronk & Cooks).
2020 Buccaneers
The Bucs will be returning their two 1,000 yard receivers from last season. They also drafted Tyler Johnson in the 5th round to help fill the #3 WR role.
Gronk is out of retirement while Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard are returning to create one of the deepest TE rooms in the entire NFL.
Tampa drafted Ke'Shawn Vaughn in the 3rd round and Raymond Calais in the 7th. Their 2018 2nd round pick, Ronald Jones II, is also returning to split reps with recently signed free agent LeSean McCoy. This give Brady plenty of options to find his next James White.
Fantasy Outlook
According to various websites, Brady's ADP (Average Draft Position) is 7th-9th round and most experts have him ranked as their 8th-12th QB.
My rankings are as follows:
Patrick Mahomes
Lamar Jackson
Russell Wilson
Tom Brady
Deshaun Watson
Matt Ryan
Carson Wentz
Dak Prescott
Kyler Murray
Ben Roethlisberger
Josh Allen
Aaron Rodgers
I never reach for a QB when drafting. However, if the 8th round rolls around and Tommy is still available, then I will absolutely draft a top 5 QB at that spot.
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